The Next Eleven are on their way

Other emerging nations are already on their way to becoming industrialised nations. Investment banks are keeping a close eye on countries like Egypt, Nigeria, Indonesia, Mexico, Vietnam, South Korea and the Philippines, jointly referred to as the Next Eleven group.

These countries have, however, also been set back by the economic and financial crisis. The British Overseas Development Institute (ODI) estimates that the flow of investments to the South could quickly dwindle to a trickle, with a probable contraction of 25 per cent, perhaps more. This global economic slump afflicts export-oriented economies more severely than others, and Germany, China and Russia to a particular degree.

Whatever the outcome of this crisis, one thing is already certain: there are no limits to growth, because the world’s population will increase to 9 billion people by 2050 according to average forecasts, for the most part in the BRICS and Next Eleven countries. This is the propellant for the next global crisis, with even greater explosive potential than the present one, because economic and population growth combined will cause a massive acceleration in natural resource consumption.

Sustainability strategies for the BRICS countries

Despite this, or precisely for this reason, the emerging nations are advancing their arguments for the right to development with growing conviction. With the widening rift between rich and poor, social policymakers in the BRICS countries are also facing gigantic challenges. China and India have developed their own sustainability approaches between ‘harmonious society’ and ‘inclusive growth’, albeit with a distinct socio-economic bias.

German development cooperation must rise to this challenge, because there is no way around the need for socially, economically and ecologically responsible development. Progressively, it is taking on this responsibility and playing a spearheading role worldwide.

Take the case of India. Sixty years after independence, it has completely reordered its donor relations, with Germany now one of only six donor countries – a fact that underscores the special quality of Indo-German relations. former German Development Minister Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul and her Indian counterpart, Palaniappan Chidambaram, celebrated 50 years of Indo-German cooperation in New Delhi at the end of October 2008, going on to envisage future avenues of cooperation. Her ministerial visit to New Delhi and Calcutta centred on environmental, energy and financial issues.

Before the German Development Minister, almost the entire German cabinet had been to Delhi in rapid succession. Following the visit by the Chancellor in October 2007, no fewer than eight federal ministers travelled to the subcontinent, with Dr Annette Schavan, Federal Minister of Education, going several times. On her last visit in early September, one of the topics on the agenda was how to align Indo-German research cooperation even more closely with sustainability aspects in future. For years now, under the framework programme Research for Sustainability (fona), the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) has been promoting the development of innovative environmental technologies to pave the way for long-term growth in keeping with ecological and social standards.

Sustainability as guiding principle

The guiding principle behind situating interdisciplinary research projects at the interface of social, economic, regional and earth sciences is sustainability, with the added intention of giving impetus to innovation. To put ideas into practice as fast as possible, we need to advance dialogue among science, business and society - beyond national and continental boundaries. This entails social reform and changing deep rooted collective mindsets.

In 2008, the Federal Environment Ministry (BMU) also launched its long-term series of dialogues in India. Entitled Strategic Dialogues - Solutions for Green Growth, this aims to involve emerging nations such as India, China, South Africa and Brazil in bilateral dialogue on climate and enlist their support as reliable partners for German environment policy. BMU’s intention with this initiative is not just to make a contribution to modernising resource-intensive economies in emerging nations and largely decouple this growth from future resource use; it also wants to position German environmental technology.

New cooperation and customised solutions

German foreign and trade policy will continue to align more closely with the emerging nations. The German Government is not alone in planning its strategies and initiatives with this in mind: enterprises and associations are as well. Now and in future, one of AgenZ’s jobs is to sound out opportunities and risks together with the sectoral divisions and regional departments at GTZ and make constructive contributions to mastering new challenges.